AI Chat Paper
Note: Please note that the following content is generated by AMiner AI. SciOpen does not take any responsibility related to this content.
{{lang === 'zh_CN' ? '文章概述' : 'Summary'}}
{{lang === 'en_US' ? '中' : 'Eng'}}
Chat more with AI
Article Link
Collect
Submit Manuscript
Show Outline
Outline
Show full outline
Hide outline
Outline
Show full outline
Hide outline
Research Article

Self-induced collision risk of the Starlink constellation based on long-term orbital evolution analysis

Wei Zhang( )Xiuhong WangWen CuiZhi ZhaoSirui Chen
Xi’an Satellite Control Center, Xi’an 710043, China
Show Author Information

Graphical Abstract

In this paper, we research the collision risk inside the Starlink constellation. The results show that malfunctioning satellites in Phase 1 cause an 86.2% self-induced collision probability based on a malfunctioning rate of 1%, which is close to the collision probability caused by objects larger than 6 cm during five years of service. Therefore, self-induced collisions are another important risk factor for the Starlink constellation.

Abstract

The deployment of mega constellations has had a significant effect on the compounding space debris environment, increasing the number of on-orbit objects in all conditions and damaging the stability of the space debris environment. The increased density of space objects is associated with an increased risk of on-orbit collisions. Collision risk exists not only between a mega constellation and the space debris environment but also inside a mega constellation. In this study, we used the Starlink constellation to investigate the self-induced collision risk caused by malfunctioning satellites. First, we analyzed the conjunction condition between malfunctioning and operative satellites based on long-term orbital evolution characteristics. The collision probability was then calculated based on the conjunction analysis results. The results show that malfunctioning satellites in Phase 1 cause an 86.2% self-induced collision probability based on a malfunctioning rate of 1%, which is close to the collision probability caused by objects larger than 6 cm during five years of service. Therefore, self-induced collisions are another important risk factor for the Starlink constellation.

References

[1]
Space-Track website. Information on http://www.space-track.org (cited 1 Sep 2022)
[2]

Kessler, D. J. Collisional cascading: The limits of population growth in low Earth orbit. Advances in Space Research, 1991, 11(12): 63–66.

[3]

Zhang, J., Cai, Y., Xue, C., Xue, Z., Cai, H. LEO mega constellations: Review of development, impact, surveillance, and governance. Space: Science & Technology, 2022, 2022: 9865174.

[4]

Yun, C., Hu, M., Song, Q., Wu, T. Security research and maneuver avoidance strategy of LEO constellation. Space Debris Research, 2020, 20(3): 17–23. (in Chinese)

[5]
United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs. Information on https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/oosadoc/data/documents/2021/aac.105/aac.10512620.html (cited 1 Mar 2023)
[6]

Radtke, J., Kebschull, C., Stoll, E. Interactions of the space debris environment with mega constellations—Using the example of the OneWeb constellation. Acta Astronautica, 2017, 131: 55–68.

[7]

Bastida Virgili, B., Dolado, J. C., Lewis, H. G., Radtke, J., Krag, H., Revelin, B., Cazaux, C., Colombo, C., Crowther, R., Metz, M. Risk to space sustainability from large constellations of satellites. Acta Astronautica, 2016, 126: 154–162.

[8]

Ren, S., Yang, X., Wang, R., Liu, S., Sun, X. The interaction between the LEO satellite constellation and the space debris environment. Applied Sciences, 2021, 11(20): 9490.

[9]

Le May, S., Gehly, S., Carter, B. A., Flegel, S. Space debris collision probability analysis for proposed global broadband constellations. Acta Astronautica, 2018, 151: 445–455.

[10]
Lewis, H., Radtke, J., Beck, J., Virgili, B. B., Krag, H. Self-induced collision risk analysis for large constellations. In: Proceedings of the ESA/ESOC 7th European Conference on Space Debris, Darmstadt, Germany, 2017: 7.
[11]

Hu, S., Chen, L., Liu, L. The structure evolution of satellite constellation. Acta Astronomica Sinica, 2003, 44(1): 46–54. (in Chinese)

[12]

Chen, Y., Zhao, L., Liu, H., Li, L., Liu, J. Analysis of configuration and maintenance strategy of LEO walker constellation. Journal of Astronautics, 2019, 40(11): 1296–1303. (in Chinese)

[13]

Xiang, J., Fan, L., Zhang, Y. Study on design of the structure self-stabilization for satellite constellation. Flight Dynamics, 2007, 25(4): 81–85. (in Chinese)

[14]

Liu, L. Orbital Theory of Spacecraft. Beijing: National Defense Industry Press, 2000: 126–136. (in Chinese)

[15]

James, R. W. Mission Geometry: Orbit and Constellation Design and Management. Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Microcosm Press & Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001.

[16]

Chobotov, V. A., Herman, D. E., Johnson, C. G. Collision and debris hazard assessment for a low-Earth-orbit space constellation. Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, 1997, 34(2): 233–238.

[17]

Chen, L., Han, L., Bai, X. Orbital Dynamics and Error Analysis of Space Object. Beijing: National Defense Industry Press, 2011.

[18]
Klinkrad, H. Space Debris: Models and Risk Analysis. Berlin Heidelberg, Germany: Springer, 2006.
Astrodynamics
Pages 445-453
Cite this article:
Zhang W, Wang X, Cui W, et al. Self-induced collision risk of the Starlink constellation based on long-term orbital evolution analysis. Astrodynamics, 2023, 7(4): 445-453. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42064-023-0171-7

419

Views

4

Crossref

3

Web of Science

5

Scopus

0

CSCD

Altmetrics

Received: 14 February 2023
Accepted: 22 June 2023
Published: 10 August 2023
© Tsinghua University Press 2023
Return