AI Chat Paper
Note: Please note that the following content is generated by AMiner AI. SciOpen does not take any responsibility related to this content.
{{lang === 'zh_CN' ? '文章概述' : 'Summary'}}
{{lang === 'en_US' ? '中' : 'Eng'}}
Chat more with AI
Article Link
Collect
Submit Manuscript
Show Outline
Outline
Show full outline
Hide outline
Outline
Show full outline
Hide outline
Research Article | Open Access

Adapting node–place model to predict and monitor COVID-19 footprints and transmission risks

Jiali Zhou( )Mingzhi ZhouJiangping ZhouZhan Zhao
Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, 999077, Hong Kong, China
Show Author Information

Highlights

• Node-place model adapted to account for node, place, and human mobility patterns.

• A new metric, COVID-19 footprint, proposed to capture pandemic transmission process.

• Stations with High node, place, and mobility indices have more COVID-19 footprints.

• Regression results show place, node, and mobility's impacts on COVID-19 footprints.

Abstract

The node–place model has been widely used to classify and evaluate transit stations, which sheds light on individuals’ travel behaviors and supports urban planning through effectively integrating land use and transportation development. This study adapts this model to investigate whether and how node, place, and mobility would be associated with the transmission risks and presences of the local COVID-19 cases in a city. Moreover, the unique metric drawn from detailed visit history of the infected, i.e., the COVID-19 footprints, is proposed and exploited. This study then empirically uses the adapted model to examine the station-level factors affecting the local COVID-19 footprints. The model accounts for traditional measures of the node and place as well as actual human mobility patterns associated with the node and place. It finds that stations with high node, place, and human mobility indices normally have more COVID-19 footprints in proximity. A multivariate regression is fitted to see whether and to what degree different indices and indicators can predict the COVID-19 footprints. The results indicate that many of the place, node, and human mobility indicators significantly impact the concentration of COVID-19 footprints. These are useful for policy-makers to predict and monitor hotspots for COVID-19 and other pandemics’ transmission.

References

 

Afrin, S., Chowdhury, F.J., Rahman, M.M., 2021. COVID-19 pandemic: rethinking strategies for resilient urban design, perceptions, and planning. Front. Sustain. Cities 3, 668263.

 

Awad-Núñez, S., Julio, R., Gomez, J., Moya-Gómez, B., González, J.S., 2021. Post-COVID-19 travel behaviour patterns: impact on the willingness to pay of users of public transport and shared mobility services in Spain. Eur. Transp. Res. Rev. 13, 1-18.

 

Bertolini, L., 1999. Spatial development patterns and public transport: the application of an analytical model in The Netherlands. Plann. Pract. Res. 14, 199-210.

 
Bhattacharya, S., Siva Sathya, S., Sharmiladevi, S., 2021. Analyzing the spread of COVID-19 in India through PageRank and diffusion techniques. In: Emerging Technologies in Data Mining and Information Security, pp. 723–733.
 

Biba, S., Curtin, K.M., Manca, G., 2010. A new method for determining the population with walking access to transit. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 24, 347-364.

 

Brin, S., Page, L., 1998. The anatomy of a large-scale hypertextual Web search engine. Comput. Netw. ISDN Syst. 30, 107-117.

 

Cao, Z., Asakura, Y., Tan, Z., 2020. Coordination between node, place, and ridership: comparing three transit operators in Tokyo. Transport Res D-TR E. 87, 102518.

 

Chang, S., Pierson, E., Koh, P.W., Gerardin, J., Redbird, B., Grusky, D., et al., 2021. Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening. Nature 589, 82-87.

 

Cummings, C., Mahmassani, H., 2022. Does intercity rail station placement matter? Expansion of the node–place model to identify station location impacts on Amtrak ridership. J. Transport Geogr. 99, 103278.

 

Dou, M., Wang, Y., Dong, S., 2021. Integrating network centrality and node–place model to evaluate and classify station areas in Shanghai. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 10, 414.

 

Gartland, N., Fishwick, D., Coleman, A., Davies, K., Hartwig, A., Johnson, S., et al., 2022. Transmission and control of SARS-CoV-2 on ground public transport: a rapid review of the literature up to May 2021. J. Transport Health 26, 101356.

 
Hong Kong SAR Government, 2022a. Data in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in HK (geodatabase). https://data.gov.hk/en-data/dataset/hk-dh-chpsebcddr-novel-infectious-agent.
 
Hong Kong SAR Government, 2022b. Archive of statistics on 5th wave of COVID-19. https://www.coronavirus.gov.hk/eng/5th-wave-statistics.html.
 

Jeffrey, D., Boulangé, C., Giles-Corti, B., Washington, S., Gunn, L., 2019. Using walkability measures to identify train stations with the potential to become transit oriented developments located in walkable neighbourhoods. J. Transport Geogr. 76, 221-231.

 

Kamruzzaman, M., Baker, D., Washington, S., Turrell, G., 2014. Advance transit oriented development typology: case study in Brisbane, Australia. J. Transport Geogr. 34, 54-70.

 

Kan, Z., Kwan, M.P., Wong, M.S., Huang, J., Liu, D., 2021. Identifying the space-time patterns of COVID-19 risk and their associations with different built environment features in Hong Kong. Sci. Total Environ. 772, 145379.

 
Legislative Council Secretariat of Hong Kong SAR, 2016. Transport Statistical Highlights. https://www.legco.gov.hk/research-publications/english/1617issh06-public-transport-20161028-e.pdf.
 

Li, B., Peng, Y., He, H., Wang, M., Feng, T., 2021. Built environment and early infection of COVID-19 in urban districts: a case study of Huangzhou. Sustain. Cities Soc. 66, 102685.

 

Litvinova, M., Liu, Q.H., Kulikov, E.S., Ajelli, M., 2019. Reactive school closure weakens the network of social interactions and reduces the spread of influenza. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 116, 13174-13181.

 

Lyu, G., Bertolini, L., Pfeffer, K., 2016. Developing a TOD typology for Beijing metro station areas. J. Transport Geogr. 55, 40-50.

 

Manzira, C.K., Charly, A., Caulfield, B., 2022. Assessing the impact of mobility on the incidence of COVID-19 in Dublin City. Sustain. Cities Soc. 80, 103770.

 

Megahed, N.A., Ghoneim, E.M., 2020. Antivirus-built environment: lessons learned from Covid-19 pandemic. Sustain. Cities Soc. 61, 102350.

 

Mo, B., Feng, K., Shen, Y., Tam, C., Li, D., Yin, Y., et al., 2021. Modeling epidemic spreading through public transit using time-varying encounter network. Transport. Res. C Emerg. Technol. 122, 102893.

 

Nguyen, Q.C., Huang, Y., Kumar, A., Duan, H., Keralis, J.M., Dwivedi, P., et al., 2020. Using 164 million google street view images to derive built environment predictors of COVID-19 cases. Int. J. Environ. Res. Publ. Health 17, 6359.

 

Park, K., Farb, A., Chen, S., 2021. First-/last-mile experience matters: the influence of the built environment on satisfaction and loyalty among public transit riders. Transport Pol. 112, 32-42.

 

Rousseeuw, P., 1987. Silhouettes: a graphical aid to the interpretation and validation of cluster analysis. J. Comput. Appl. Math. 20, 53-65.

 

Schlosser, F., Maier, B.F., Jack, O., Hinrichs, D., Zachariae, A., Brockmann, D., 2020. COVID-19 lockdown induces disease-mitigating structural changes in mobility networks. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 117, 32883-32890.

 

Van Doremalen, N., Bushmaker, T., Morris, D.H., Holbrook, M.G., Gamble, A., Williamson, B.N., et al., 2020. Aerosol and surface stability of SARS-CoV-2 as compared with SARS-CoV-1. N. Engl. J. Med. 382, 1564-1567.

 

Xu, G., Jiang, Y., Wang, S., Qin, K., Ding, J., Liu, Y., et al., 2022. Spatial disparities of self-reported COVID-19 cases and influencing factors in Wuhan, China. Sustain. Cities Soc. 76, 103485.

 

Yabe, T., Tsubouchi, K., Fujiwara, N., Wada, T., Sekimoto, Y., Ukkusuri, S.V., 2020. Non-compulsory measures sufficiently reduced human mobility in Tokyo during the COVID-19 epidemic. Sci. Rev. 10, 18053.

 

Zemp, S., Stauffacher, M., Lang, D.J., Scholz, R.W., 2011. Classifying railway stations for strategic transport and land use planning: context matters. J. Transport Geogr. 19, 670-679.

 

Zhang, Y., Marshall, S., Manley, E., 2019. Network criticality and the node–place–design model: classifying metro station areas in Greater London. J. Transport Geogr. 79, 102485.

 
Zhou, J., Zhao, Z., Zhou, J., 2022. Quantifying COVID-19 Transmission Risks Based on Human Mobility Data: A Personalized PageRank Approach for Efficient Contact-Tracing. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2210.01005.
 

Zhou, J., Wu, J., Ma, H., 2021. Abrupt changes, institutional reactions, and adaptive behaviors: an exploratory study of COVID-19 and related events' impacts on Hong Kong's metro riders. Appl. Geogr. 134, 102504.

Communications in Transportation Research
Article number: 100110
Cite this article:
Zhou J, Zhou M, Zhou J, et al. Adapting node–place model to predict and monitor COVID-19 footprints and transmission risks. Communications in Transportation Research, 2023, 3: 100110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.commtr.2023.100110

260

Views

2

Crossref

3

Web of Science

2

Scopus

Altmetrics

Received: 28 August 2023
Revised: 20 October 2023
Accepted: 21 October 2023
Published: 27 November 2023
© 2023 The Authors.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Return