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Research Article | Open Access

Modeling of cold-temperate tree Pinus koraiensis (Pinaceae) distribution in the Asia-Pacific region: Climate change impact

Tatyana Y. Petrenkoa, Kirill A. Korznikova( ), Dmitry E. Kislova, Nadezhda G. Belyaevab, Pavel V. Krestova
Botanical Garden-Institute FEB RAS, Makovskogo St. 142, Vladivostok, 690024, Russia
Institute of Geography RAS, Staromonetniy 24-4, Moscow, 119017, Russia
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Abstract

Background

Pinus koraiensis Siebold & Zucc. (Korean pine) is a key species of the mixed cold temperate forests of Northeast Asia. Current climate change can significantly worsen the quality of P. koraiensis habitats and therefore lead to a large-scale structural and functional transformation of the East Asian mixed forests. We built a species distribution model (SDM) for P. koraiensis using the random forest classifier – a versatile machine learning algorithm, to discover overlap areas of potential species occurrence in the climate condition of the Last Glacial Maximum (~21,000 year before present) and in the projected future climates (2070 year), from which possible permanent refugia for P. koraiensis were identified.

Results

Using the random forest supervised learning algorithm, we developed models of the modern distribution of P. koraiensis in accordance with the five selected bioclimatic variables (Kira's warmth and coldness indices, the index of continentality, the rain precipitation index, and the snow precipitation index). In addition to current climatic conditions, we performed this analysis for the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum and for the future projected climate (2070) under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Among the predictors, the rain index appears to be the most significant. The land area estimates with high suitability for P. koraiensis was 303,785 ​km2 under current climatic conditions, 586,499 ​km2 for the Last Glacial Maximum, and 337,573 ​km2 for the future (2070) period under the RCP2.6 scenario, and 397,764 ​km2 under the RCP8.5 scenario.

Conclusions

Most of the potential range of P. koraiensis during the Last Glacial Maximum was located outside the current distribution area of the species. The climatically suitable P. koraiensis habitats will likely disappear in the western part of its modern range. In the southern part of the range, which includes glacial refugia, the areas of continuous distribution of the P. koraiensis populations since the end of the Pleistocene are expected to be fragmented, but some localities in the north of the Korean Peninsula, northeast China, southern Primorye (Russia), and central Honshu (Japan) with suitable climatic conditions for the species will support the existence of populations.

Keywords

Climate changeBioclimatic modelingSpecies distribution modelKorean pineNortheast Asia

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Forest Ecosystems
Volume 9 Issue 2,
April 2022
Article number: 100015
DOI: 10.1016/j.fecs.2022.100015
Cite this article:
Petrenko TY, Korznikov KA, Kislov DE, et al. Modeling of cold-temperate tree Pinus koraiensis (Pinaceae) distribution in the Asia-Pacific region: Climate change impact. Forest Ecosystems, 2022, 9(2): 100015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fecs.2022.100015

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Published: 25 February 2022
© 2022 Beijing Forestry University.

This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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