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Publishing Language: Chinese

"Three-layer and four-domain" scenario analysis method and its application to urban complex disasters

Rui BAYudong ZHANGYi LIUHui ZHANG( )
Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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Abstract

Rapid urbanization has increased the risks and complexity of multi-hazard urban disasters due to various risk factors such as natural disasters, accidents, public security incidents and public health incidents. Prevention, control and emergency responses to multi-hazard urban disasters need fusion analyses using more comprehensive multi-dimensional and cross-disciplinary big data. This study develops a fusion analysis system for cyber-physical-social-cognitive (CPS-C) domains integrated with three layer "planning-tactics- operations" responses. The fusion analysis then works in conjunction with an emergency management framework with the "objective-scenario-mission-resource-response-assessment-decision" procedure. The management of an urban waterlogging emergency is used as a case study with the planning goal based on a typical case analysis and the operations analysis based on a disaster cause analysis. The tactics analysis analyzes the emergency process and key elements to either prevent or control the urban waterlogging for the scenario of emergency management of waterlogging disasters. This method is applied to a virtual interactive scenario simulation of a typhoon induced waterlogging disaster. This method provides theoretical and technical support for emergency management of urban complex disasters.

CLC number: X915.5 Document code: A Article ID: 1000-0054(2022)10-1579-12

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Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology)
Pages 1579-1590
Cite this article:
BA R, ZHANG Y, LIU Y, et al. "Three-layer and four-domain" scenario analysis method and its application to urban complex disasters. Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology), 2022, 62(10): 1579-1590. https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2022.22.029

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Received: 02 December 2021
Published: 15 October 2022
© Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology). All rights reserved.
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