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Open Access

Simulation of COVID-19 Outbreak in Nanjing Lukou Airport Based on Complex Dynamical Networks

College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China

Bin Chen and Runkang Guo contribute equally to this paper.

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Abstract

The Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is still imposing a devastating impact on public health, the economy, and society. Predicting the development of epidemics and exploring the effects of various mitigation strategies have been a research focus in recent years. However, the spread simulation of COVID-19 in the dynamic social system is relatively unexplored. To address this issue, considering the outbreak of COVID-19 at Nanjing Lukou Airport in 2021, we constructed an artificial society of Nanjing Lukou Airport based on the Artificial societies, Computational experiments, and Parallel execution (ACP) approach. Specifically, the artificial society includes an environmental model, population model, contact networks model, disease spread model, and intervention strategy model. To reveal the dynamic variation of individuals in the airport, we first modeled the movement of passengers and designed an algorithm to generate the moving traces. Then, the mobile contact networks were constructed and aggregated with the static networks of staff and passengers. Finally, the complex dynamical network of contacts between individuals was generated. Based on the artificial society, we conducted large-scale computational experiments to study the spread characteristics of COVID-19 in an airport and to investigate the effects of different intervention strategies. Learned from the reproduction of the outbreak, it is found that the increase in cumulative incidence exhibits a linear growth mode, different from that (an exponential growth mode) in a static network. In terms of mitigation measures, promoting unmanned security checks and boarding in an airport is recommended, as to reduce contact behaviors between individuals and staff.

Keywords

Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)artificial societyintervention strategycomplex dynamical networks

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Complex System Modeling and Simulation
Volume 3 Issue 1,
March 2023
Pages 71-82
DOI: 10.23919/CSMS.2023.0001
Cite this article:
Chen B, Guo R, Zhu Z, et al. Simulation of COVID-19 Outbreak in Nanjing Lukou Airport Based on Complex Dynamical Networks. Complex System Modeling and Simulation, 2023, 3(1): 71-82. https://doi.org/10.23919/CSMS.2023.0001

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Received: 29 July 2022
Revised: 03 January 2023
Accepted: 11 January 2023
Published: 09 March 2023
© The author(s) 2023

The articles published in this open access journal are distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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