Evaluation of the logistics resilience of prefabricated buildings via DEMATEL–PROMETHEE II

Jun Xiao, Chenghua Li()

School of Civil & Architecture Engineering, Xi’an Technological University, Xi’an 710021, China

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Abstract

To address potential uncertainties and disruptions in the production process of prefabricated components that may lead to supply delays or interruptions, this study evaluates the logistics resilience of prefabricated buildings, aiming to increase their adaptability and risk resistance in the face of uncertainty and unexpected events. To this end, this study employs a systematic literature review (SLR) to establish a logistics resilience evaluation index system, encompassing predictive capability, responsiveness, adaptability, recovery capability, and learning ability. Decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) is subsequently used to determine the weight of each indicator, which is combined with the preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations II (PROMETHEE II) model for multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to construct a logistics resilience evaluation study for prefabricated buildings. Finally, four representative prefabricated building projects are selected for analysis to calculate the logistics resilience of prefabricated buildings. The study results indicate that the logistics resilience ranking of the target projects is as follows: Project A > Project C > Project B > Project D, indicating that the resilience of Projects A, C, B, and D decreases sequentially when facing uncertain events. This study demonstrates that rational logistics resilience evaluation and optimization can significantly improve construction efficiency and overall risk resistance in prefabricated building projects.

Keywords

indicator system prefabricated building logistics resilience PROMETHEE II prefabricated component type

References

[1]

D. Wang, J. Y. Luo, Y. K. Wang. Multifactor uncertainty analysis of prefabricated building supply chain: Qualitative comparative analysis. Eng Constr Archit Manage, 2024, 31: 1994–2010.

Primary indicator	Secondary indicator	Index	Indicator source
Predictive ability	Accuracy of historical data	Y₁₁	[16, 17]
	Effectiveness of demand forecasting models	Y₁₂	[17]
	Risk identification and assessment capabilities	Y₁₃	[18]
	Efficiency of information-sharing mechanisms	Y₁₄	[18]
Responsiveness	Flexibility in resource allocation	X₁₁	[19]
	Timeliness of decision-making	X₁₂	[16]
	Completeness of emergency response plans	X₁₃	[18]
	Optimization of transportation networks	X₁₄	[20]
	Efficiency of communication and coordination	X₁₅	[17, 21]
Adaptability	Technological adaptability	S₁₁	[21]
	Sensitivity of market feedback mechanisms	S₁₂	[22]
	Number of outsourced prefabricated components	S₁₃	[17]
	Diversity of suppliers	S₁₄	[17]
	Manufacturing capacity of prefabricated components	S₁₅	[18, 21]
Recovery ability	Efficiency of recovery processes	H₁₁	[16]
	Resource reorganization capabilities	H₁₂	[22]
	Supply chain coordination ability	H₁₃	[16]
	Level of informatization	H₁₄	[16]
	Regulatory orderliness	H₁₅	[16]
	Logistics distribution capabilities	H₁₆	[22]
Learning ability	Information feedback mechanisms	L₁₁	[23]
	Prefabricated component assembly and construction capabilities	L₁₂	[18]
	Ability to adapt to design changes	L₁₃	[18]
	Project culture	L₁₄	[24]
	Risk awareness	L₁₅	[24]
	Frequency of ongoing employee training	L₁₆	[24]

Index	M_i	R_i	W_i (%)	Centrality rank	Indicator attribute
Y₁₁	0.701,88	0.510,69	2.23	26	Causal factors
Y₁₂	1.349,56	−0.136,98	4.28	9	Resulting factors
Y₁₃	1.182,41	0.030,16	3.75	16	Causal factors
Y₁₄	1.428,68	−0.216,10	4.53	6	Resulting factors
X₁₁	1.630,07	−0.417,49	5.17	1	Resulting factors
X₁₂	1.310,14	−0.097,57	4.16	11	Resulting factors
X₁₃	1.025,61	0.186,96	3.25	20	Causal factors
X₁₄	1.341,17	−0.128,59	4.25	10	Resulting factors
X₁₅	1.428,44	−0.215,86	4.53	7	Resulting factors
S₁₁	0.997,78	0.214,79	3.16	22	Causal factors
S₁₂	0.764,28	0.448,29	2.42	25	Causal factors
S₁₃	0.950,12	0.262,46	3.01	23	Causal factors
S₁₄	1.203,08	0.009,49	3.82	15	Causal factors
S₁₅	0.926,21	0.286,37	2.94	24	Causal factors
H₁₁	1.538,97	−0.326,39	4.88	3	Resulting factors
H₁₂	1.104,69	0.107,88	3.50	18	Causal factors
H₁₃	1.545,29	−0.332,71	4.90	2	Resulting factors
H₁₄	1.230,58	−0.018,02	3.90	14	Resulting factors
H₁₅	1.239,15	−0.026,57	3.93	13	Resulting factors
H₁₆	1.378,43	−0.165,86	4.37	8	Resulting factors
L₁₁	1.349,98	−0.137,40	4.28	5	Resulting factors
L₁₂	0.968,01	0.244,57	3.07	21	Causal factors
L₁₃	1.368,73	−0.156,15	4.34	4	Resulting factors
L₁₄	1.095,87	0.116,71	3.48	19	Causal factors
L₁₅	1.275,39	−0.062,82	4.05	12	Resulting factors
L₁₆	1.192,45	−0.020,12	3.78	17	Resulting factors

Respondent	Project A	Project B	Project C	Project D
Consulting unit	2	1	1	1
Construction unit	1	3	4	1
Design unit	3	3	3	3
Construction company	14	15	15	18
Supervision unit	9	10	9	11
Government	1	1	1	1

Number	First-level indicator	Second-level indicator	Score
Number	First-level indicator	Second-level indicator	Project A	Project B	Project C	Project D
Y₁₁	Predictive ability	Accuracy of historical data	3	2	4	1
Y₁₂		Effectiveness of demand forecasting models	2	3	4	2
Y₁₃		Risk identification and assessment capabilities	3	1	2	3
Y₁₄		Efficiency of information-sharing mechanisms	4	3	2	3
X₁₁	Responsiveness	Flexibility in resource allocation	3	4	1	2
X₁₂		Timeliness of decision-making	3	4	4	2
X₁₃		Completeness of emergency response plans	3	2	3	4
X₁₄		Optimization of transportation networks	4	2	3	1
X₁₅		Efficiency of communication and coordination	3	4	2	3
S₁₁	Adaptability	Technological adaptability	2	3	4	3
S₁₂		Sensitivity of market feedback mechanisms	3	1	2	1
S₁₃		Number of outsourced prefabricated components	4	3	1	2
S₁₄		Diversity of suppliers	3	4	3	2
S₁₅		Manufacturing capacity of prefabricated components	2	2	3	2
H₁₁	Recovery ability	Efficiency of recovery processes	4	3	4	2
H₁₂		Resource reorganization capabilities	3	4	2	1
H₁₃		Supply chain coordination ability	4	3	4	2
H₁₄		Level of informatization	3	3	4	3
H₁₅		Regulatory orderliness	3	2	3	4
H₁₆		Logistics distribution capabilities	4	3	2	3
L₁₁	Learning ability	Information feedback mechanisms	3	2	4	1
L₁₂		Prefabricated component assembly and construction capabilities	4	3	2	2
L₁₃		Ability to adapt to design changes	4	3	2	2
L₁₄		Project culture	3	4	3	2
L₁₅		Risk awareness	2	3	4	2
L₁₆		Frequency of ongoing employee training	3	2	3	4

Project	Φ⁺(X)	Φ⁻(X)	Φ(X)
A	0.3528	0.1542	0.1986
B	0.2683	0.2574	0.0110
C	0.3348	0.2445	0.0903
D	0.1286	0.4284	−0.2999