Geothermal with features of large reserves and non-pollution has been one of the most important energy. China has significant geothermal resources. There are rich hydrothermal resources in Xinji, which has been in development for 5 years. However, hot water continues to decrease because of extensive exploitation and utilization. We selected exploration area as study area, build a set of numerical models of Guantao formation on the basis of actual geological conditions. We get the distribution of hydraulic conductivity from 1.7 m/d to 1.9 m/d by parameter inversion using historical water level monitoring data, and simulation effect is good. We calculate the maximum permissible exploitation under the limitation of 200 m in depth in 50 years which is about 2.2 million m³/a. The results will provide theoretic support for plan making of geothermal exploitation.