To evaluate the prospective association between cumulative resting heart rate (cumRHR) and rapid renal function decline (RRFD) in a cohort of individuals aged 60 and older.

In the Tianjin Chronic Kidney Disease Cohort Study, the individuals who underwent three consecutive physical examinations between 2014 and 2017, with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) greater than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m² and aged 60 years or older were enrolled. A total of 27,564 patients were prospectively followed up from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2020. The 3-year cumRHR was calculated. The primary outcome was RRFD, defined as an annualized decline in eGFR of 5 mL/min per 1.73 m² or greater. Logistic and restricted spline regression models and subgroup analysis were used to investigate the association of cumRHR with RRFD after adjusting for all confounders.

During a median follow-up of 3.2 years, a total of 4,347 (15.77%) subjects developed RRFD. In fully-adjusted models, compared with the lowest quartile of cumRHR, the odds ratio (OR) for the highest was 1.44 (1.28–1.61), P < 0.001. Furthermore, each 1-standard deviation (27.97 beats/min per year) increment in cumRHR was associated with a 17% (P < 0.001) increased risk of RRFD, with a linear positive correlation (P for non-linear = 0.803). Participants with a 3-year cumRHR ≥ 207 (beats/min) * year (equivalent to ≥ 69 beats/min per year in 3 years) were found to be at a higher risk of RRFD.

The cumRHR is significantly associated with a higher risk of RRFD among older adults. These results might provide an effective goal for managing and delaying the decline of renal function in the older adults.