The design goal for the tracking interval of high-speed railway trains in China is 3 min, but it is difficult to achieve, and it is widely believed that it is mainly limited by the tracking interval of train arrivals. If the train arrival tracking interval can be compressed, it will be beneficial for China’s high-speed railway to achieve a 3-min train tracking interval. The goal of this article is to study how to compress the train arrival tracking interval.

By simulating the process of dense train groups arriving at the station and stopping, the headway between train arrivals at the station was calculated, and the pattern of train arrival headway was obtained, changing the traditional understanding that the train arrival headway is considered the main factor limiting the headway of trains.

When the running speed of trains is high, the headway between trains is short, the length of the station approach throat area is considerable and frequent train arrivals at the station, the arrival headway for the first group or several groups of trains will exceed the headway, but the subsequent sets of trains will have a headway equal to the arrival headway. This convergence characteristic is obtained by appropriately increasing the running time.

According to this pattern, there is no need to overly emphasize the impact of train arrival headway on the headway. This plays an important role in compressing train headway and improving high-speed railway capacity.

This study aims to analyze the development direction of train speed, density and weight in China.

The development of China’s railway in the past 40 years can be divided into 3 stages. At the stage of potential tapping and capacity expansion, it is important to improve the train weight and density by upgrading the existing lines, and improving transportation capacity rapidly. At the stage of railway speed increase, the first priority is to increase train speed, reduce the travel time of passenger train, and synchronously take into account the increase of train density and weight. At the stage of developing high-speed railway, train speed, density and weight are co-developing on demand.

The train speed of high-speed railway will be 400 km h⁻¹, the interval time of train tracking will be 3 min, and the traffic density will be more than 190 pairs per day. The running speed of high-speed freight EMU will reach 200 km h⁻¹ and above. The maximum speed of passenger train on mixed passenger and freight railway can reach 200 km h⁻¹. The minimum interval time of train tracking can be compressed to 5 min. The freight train weight of 850 m series arrival-departure track railway can be increased to 4,500–5,000 t and that of 1,050 m series to 5,500–6,400 t. EMU trains should gradually replace ordinary passenger trains to improve the quality of railway passenger service. Small formation trains will operate more in intercity railway, suburban railway and short-distance passenger transportation.

The research can provide new connotations and requirements of railway train speed, density and weight in the new railway stage.