Genomic prediction (GP) in plant breeding has the potential to predict and identify the best-performing hybrids based on the genotypes of their parental lines. In a GP experiment, 34 elite inbred lines were selected to make 285 single-cross hybrids in a partial-diallel cross design. These lines represented a mini-core collection of Chinese maize germplasm and comprised 18 inbred lines from the Stiff Stalk heterotic group and 16 inbred lines from the Non-Stiff Stalk heterotic group. The parents were genotyped by sequencing and the 285 hybrids were phenotyped for nine yield and yield-related traits at two locations in the summer sowing area (SUS) and three locations in the spring sowing area (SPS) in the main maize-producing regions of China. Multiple GP models were employed to assess the accuracy of trait prediction in the hybrids. By ten-fold cross-validation, the prediction accuracies of yield performance of the hybrids estimated by the genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) model in SUS and SPS were 0.51 and 0.46, respectively. The prediction accuracies of the remaining yield-related traits estimated with GBLUP ranged from 0.49 to 0.86 and from 0.53 to 0.89 in SUS and SPS, respectively. When additive, dominance, epistasis effects, genotype-by-environment interaction, and multi-trait effects were incorporated into the prediction model, the prediction accuracy of hybrid yield performance was improved. The ratio of training to testing population and size of training population optimal for yield prediction were determined. Multiple prediction models can improve prediction accuracy in hybrid breeding.

The two most important activities in maize breeding are the development of inbred lines with high values of general combining ability (GCA) and specific combining ability (SCA), and the identification of hybrids with high yield potentials. Genomic selection (GS) is a promising genomic tool to perform selection on the untested breeding material based on the genomic estimated breeding values estimated from the genomic prediction (GP). In this study, GP analyses were carried out to estimate the performance of hybrids, GCA, and SCA for grain yield (GY) in three maize line-by-tester trials, where all the material was phenotyped in 10 to 11 multiple-location trials and genotyped with a mid-density molecular marker platform. Results showed that the prediction abilities for the performance of hybrids ranged from 0.59 to 0.81 across all trials in the model including the additive effect of lines and testers. In the model including both additive and non-additive effects, the prediction abilities for the performance of hybrids were improved and ranged from 0.64 to 0.86 across all trials. The prediction abilities of the GCA for GY were low, ranging between − 0.14 and 0.13 across all trials in the model including only inbred lines; the prediction abilities of the GCA for GY were improved and ranged from 0.49 to 0.55 across all trials in the model including both inbred lines and testers, while the prediction abilities of the SCA for GY were negative across all trials. The prediction abilities for GY between testers varied from − 0.66 to 0.82; the performance of hybrids between testers is difficult to predict. GS offers the opportunity to predict the performance of new hybrids and the GCA of new inbred lines based on the molecular marker information, the total breeding cost could be reduced dramatically by phenotyping fewer multiple-location trials.