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Open Access Original Paper Issue
Carbon dioxide storage and cumulative oil production predictions in unconventional reservoirs applying optimized machine-learning models
Petroleum Science 2025, 22(1): 296-323
Published: 21 September 2024
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To achieve carbon dioxide (CO2) storage through enhanced oil recovery, accurate forecasting of CO2 subsurface storage and cumulative oil production is essential. This study develops hybrid predictive models for the determination of CO2 storage mass and cumulative oil production in unconventional reservoirs. It does so with two multi-layer perceptron neural networks (MLPNN) and a least-squares support vector machine (LSSVM), hybridized with grey wolf optimization (GWO) and/or particle swarm optimization (PSO). Large, simulated datasets were divided into training (70%) and testing (30%) groups, with normalization applied to both groups. Mahalanobis distance identifies/eliminates outliers in the training subset only. A non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-Ⅱ) combined with LSSVM selected seven influential features from the nine available input parameters: reservoir depth, porosity, permeability, thickness, bottom-hole pressure, area, CO2 injection rate, residual oil saturation to gas flooding, and residual oil saturation to water flooding. Predictive models were developed and tested, with performance evaluated with an overfitting index (OFI), scoring analysis, and partial dependence plots (PDP), during training and independent testing to enhance model focus and effectiveness. The LSSVM-GWO model generated the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) values (0.4052 MMT for CO2 storage and 9.7392 MMbbl for cumulative oil production) in the training group. That trained model also exhibited excellent generalization and minimal overfitting when applied to the testing group (RMSE of 0.6224 MMT for CO2 storage and 12.5143 MMbbl for cumulative oil production). PDP analysis revealed that the input features “area” and “porosity” had the most influence on the LSSVM-GWO model's prediction performance. This paper presents a new hybrid modeling approach that achieves accurate forecasting of CO2 subsurface storage and cumulative oil production. It also establishes a new standard for such forecasting, which can lead to the development of more effective and sustainable solutions for oil recovery.

Open Access Review Paper Issue
Synthetic polymers: A review of applications in drilling fluids
Petroleum Science 2024, 21(1): 475-518
Published: 19 August 2023
Abstract PDF (6.6 MB) Collect
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With the growth of deep drilling and the complexity of the well profile, the requirements for a more complete and efficient exploitation of productive formations increase, which increases the risk of various complications. Currently, reagents based on modified natural polymers (which are naturally occurring compounds) and synthetic polymers (SPs) which are polymeric compounds created industrially, are widely used to prevent emerging complications in the drilling process. However, compared to modified natural polymers, SPs form a family of high-molecular-weight compounds that are fully synthesized by undergoing chemical polymerization reactions. SPs provide substantial flexibility in their design. Moreover, their size and chemical composition can be adjusted to provide properties for nearly all the functional objectives of drilling fluids. They can be classified based on chemical ingredients, type of reaction, and their responses to heating. However, some of SPs, due to their structural characteristics, have a high cost, a poor temperature and salt resistance in drilling fluids, and degradation begins when the temperature reaches 130 ℃. These drawbacks prevent SP use in some medium and deep wells. Thus, this review addresses the historical development, the characteristics, manufacturing methods, classification, and the applications of SPs in drilling fluids. The contributions of SPs as additives to drilling fluids to enhance rheology, filtrate generation, carrying of cuttings, fluid lubricity, and clay/shale stability are explained in detail. The mechanisms, impacts, and advances achieved when SPs are added to drilling fluids are also described. The typical challenges encountered by SPs when deployed in drilling fluids and their advantages and drawbacks are also discussed. Economic issues also impact the applications of SPs in drilling fluids. Consequently, the cost of the most relevant SPs, and the monomers used in their synthesis, are assessed. Environmental impacts of SPs when deployed in drilling fluids, and their manufacturing processes are identified, together with advances in SP-treatment methods aimed at reducing those impacts. Recommendations for required future research addressing SP property and performance gaps are provided.

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